Let me keep from drawing this out: we won’t be celebrating a Triple Crown winner in 2012. I’ll Have Another ran an inspired race in the Kentucky Derby but he capitalized on Bodemeister running out of steam on the home stretch. Bodemeister is the horse to beat here, but it is also his race to lose. This is the shortest of all the Triple Crown races and we saw two weeks ago what he is capable of in a short track situation. The Preakness field isn’t as deep as the Derby in talent nor number. Bodemeister will only have to really compete against I’ll Have Another and Creative Cause. Creative Cause on the other hand still ran an impressive race at Churchill even being an early casualty of the choked track. He was boxed in the middle of the pack most of the race and was eventually pushed wide but still managed to break free and finish just off the lead. For me, I see the race unfolding with huge speed between these three horses. Bodemeister will be forced to show his cards early and will be pushed to try and go wire to wire. I see no other outcome than Creative Cause coming out the victor with Bodemiester second. Look for Went the Day Well to be an upset special as he continues to improve even in defeat and can definitely run with the big boys if called to do so. Sadly, we won’t see a Triple Crown Winner this year, extending the drought to 33 years since Affirmed last did it in 1978. Had Bodemeister won the Derby, we would be having an entirely different conversation.

- Will Elkins

Post Positions

Trainer Steve Asmussen has ties to Northeast SD.

John Papendick’s column: “Asmussen, was born Nov. 18, 1965, in Gettysburg. Steve’s mother Marilyn (Sis) Scherr Asmussen was from Mobridge — she graduated in 1959. Steve is married to 1984 Mobridge High School graduate Julie Peterson (daughter of Jim and Frances Peterson of Mobridge). The Olympic wrestling Scherr twins from Mobridge — Jim and Bill — are Steve’s cousins.”

Asmussen has two horses in the Kentucky Derby tomorrow: Daddy Nose Best and Sabercat. Of these two, Daddy Nose Best has the best chance to race well. He’s been one of the most talked about horses in recent days. Daddy has had some impressive morning workouts and seems to have taken to the distance and dirt well. He’s a come-from-behind runner which can produce in the Derby with the large field and speed out of the gate this year. He’s posting at the 10 gate which wedges him right next to speed demon Trinniberg and further outside Hansen and Gemologist at 14 and 15 respectively who will make bids for the inside early. If Daddy can hold his own at the start and stay competitive he has the ability to make moves late and create a strong bid for the money down at the wire. He’s also on a hot streak winning his last two races. In the El Camino Real Derby he was 5th most of the race after being boxed out until closing the gap after the 3/4 pole winning by a nose. The Sunland Derby was about the same with him breaking 6th and trailing until being roused and making his move at the 3/4 pole to win by 3/4 lengths. Both races were one mile and 1/8 and he was surging at the end. Bad news: Julien Leparoux had both mounts and he’ll be on Union Rags in the Derby. Good news: Garrett Gomez will be on Daddy Nose Best Saturday and he’s a good money rider. Asmussen’s other horse Sabercat is more of a long-shot. His spring season hasn’t been very strong. His best performance was finishing third in the Arkansas Derby behind winner Bodemeister and Secret Circle. He’s known as a closer, which is good here, but not speedy enough to stay competitive in this field. With Asmussen this Derby, it will be feast or famine with these two horses, but he’ll have our local support no matter the outcome.

- Will Elkins

The most exciting 2 minutes in all of sports, the Kentucky Derby, will come shooting out the starting gates Saturday at approximately 6:24 PM EST. Once again, the Derby draw started to look like the NFL commissioners setting the upcoming schedule: let’s pack as much into this short space as possible. The result was that for the first time in Derby history the field is over capacity at 21 horses, with at one time front runner My Adonis as the 21st who will only run if there is a scratch. Call me a purest but I am not a fan of double gate racing, especially in the Triple Crowns because it only perpetuates the Triple Crown winner drought when good horses get squeezed out and one-hit wonders rule the day (case in point, all of last year). This could really affect #11 Alpha who has acted up when in the gates too long and will be loaded first of all 20 horses along with #1 Daddy Long Legs. Alpha has in the past turned questionable starts into race wins so look for him with the mid-pack position to make an early move to stay out of trouble. Favorites at the moment include Bodemeister, Union Rags, and Gemologist in that order. Recent history dictates that clear favorites don’t always do well in the Derby, especially with a larger than normal field. This will be the largest amount of competition some of these horses will ever face. Bodemeister ran a great Arkansas Derby winning with some thundering speed on the final stretch but he faced weaker competition and fewer horses to weave through, look for him to get cut out early especially with the #6 post position and his inexperience. Hansen has a great draw at #14 that plays to his strengths of stalking then making a bold  move. He’ll have plenty of room to run his race so smart money might have him in the top three as he’s just out of the favorites’ odds. Calvin Borel is near his nature habitat of the rail at spot #3 with Take Charge Indy. He could be the main spoiler on Saturday. If coffee is for closers, then pour Dullahan a cup because this horse knows how to finish strong. Post 5 will give him and Kent Desormeaux a great view of how the race will unfold. I will stay with my pre-Derby pick of Gemologist to win. At post 15, he can has a clear shot inside from the auxiliary gate and has no speed threats on his outside. He’s accustomed to winning races with patience, speed burst, and holding on to the lead. He’ll need it all with this field. Javier Castellano is aboard which never hurts your chances. My finishing order: Gemologist, Hansen, Dullahan. Strong contenders: Take Charge Indy, Daddy Nose Best (see my latest blog post). Long-shot: Alpha.

-Will Elkins

- Will Elkins